Archive for May, 2009

Richard Fisher grilled by China over debt monetization

Posted in Uncategorized on May 31st, 2009 by Paul Deng – Be the first to comment

This recent report from Telegraph of China's worry that the US is going to inflate away its debt:

Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, said: "Senior officials of the Chinese government grilled me about whether or not we are going to monetise the actions of our legislature."

"I must have been asked about that a hundred times in China. I was asked at every single meeting about our purchases of Treasuries. That seemed to be the principal preoccupation of those that were invested with their surpluses mostly in the United States," he told the Wall Street Journal.

His recent trip to the Far East appears to have been a stark reminder that Asia's "Confucian" culture of right action does not look kindly on the insouciant policy of printing money by Anglo-Saxons.

Read the full report here.

What struck me most about China

Posted in Uncategorized on May 30th, 2009 by Paul Deng – Be the first to comment

Fortune’s impression about China: the massive, massive infrastructure build-out, the biggest in the history of humanity.


The fast growing Chinese economy posts many challenges to the world. One of such is pollution. In 2002 during his visit to Baylor University, I asked Robert Fogel, the Nobel-winning Chicago economic historian, about his view on China’s pollution problem. His answer was startlingly simple —Just compare today’s China to Chicago in the early 20th century: Chicago back then was a fast growing dirty butcher town and transportation hub, and now look at what Chicago has become.

The message conveyed in Fogel’s simple answer is two fold: 1) for poor countries, the concern over economic development naturally dominates the concern over environment; 2) Chinese will have the greatest incentives to cure their pollution problem once they realize this can’t go on forever. For this matter, I always think China will come out as the world leader in energy efficiency innovation. Why? China faces the gravest energy challenges so the greatest pressure to innovate and break through in energy-saving technology. What will push such innovation to happen faster is crisis. Yes, I do think China needs (and possibly will have) multiple mini energy crises to make this pressure even greater. But I am optimistic.

Can "green shoots" save "zombie banks"?

Posted in Uncategorized on May 30th, 2009 by Paul Deng – Be the first to comment

An excellent panel discussion on What’s Next for the American economy, with Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University, Meredith Whitney of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, Oliver Sarkozy of Carlyle Group, Jack Welch, former General Electric CEO and Austan Goolsbee of White House Senior Economic Adviser.

Part I

Part II

Why China is so worried about the Dollar?

Posted in Uncategorized on May 29th, 2009 by Paul Deng – Be the first to comment

In this short YouTube video, Milton Friedman explains why the US has been so attractive to investors worldwide in the past; and under what condition such appeal may disappear.

I also made a chart a couple of months ago summarizing China’s recent effort starting to use its own currency, Renminbi, in international trade and signed numerous currency swap agreements with a bunch of countries. And China and Brazil are in a similar talk recently.

I don’t think for these actions China aims to replace the dollar. What Chinese government really worries about is their huge dollar-denominated asset holdings (70% of nearly $2 trillion foreign reserves) may lose value big time if the dollar drops precipitously in the future.

china+currency+swaps Why China is so worried about the Dollar?
(click to enlarge)

With economic recovery around the corner, the US should stop its money printing machine. “Ignore it at your own peril”—the US may well be on its path to destroy its economy and its reputation among countries. Watch this classic Friedman 1980 video on inflation, “Inflation is just like alcoholsim. In both cases, when you start drinking, or you start printing too much money, the good effect comes first, and the bad effects only come later. That’s why in both cases, there is a strong temptation to overdo it: to drink too much and to print too much money…”


Fiat + Chrysler = It’s a joke!

Posted in Uncategorized on May 29th, 2009 by Paul Deng – Be the first to comment