Archive for March, 2008

The Dollar and Credit Crunch

Posted in Uncategorized on March 31st, 2008 by Paul Deng – Be the first to comment
McKinnon explained on wsj that the negative yields (inflation-adjusted) on Treasurys can not be due to “flight to quality” alone. The falling dollar and foreign central banks’ intervention also played a big role. To prevent appreciation of their own currency, foreign central banks are buying more Treasurys thus reducing supply of Treasurys available for the U.S. financial institutions. Both drive up price on Treasurys.

ED AH295 mckinn 20080330170415 The Dollar and Credit Crunch

(click to enlarge, source: wsj)

Regulation overhaul by Paulson Jr.

Posted in Uncategorized on March 30th, 2008 by Paul Deng – Be the first to comment

According to NY Times, the Bush administration is proposing the broadest overhaul of Wall Street regulation since the Great Depression.

The plan hands vast new authority to the Federal Reserve…The proposals would, for the first time, create a set of federal regulators with authority over all players in the financial system, be they banks, insurance companies or other entities like hedge funds and private equity funds, which now operate virtually without regulation. But that authority would be limited…

Yuan Exchagne Rate: Appreciation or Depreciation?

Posted in Uncategorized on March 29th, 2008 by Paul Deng – Be the first to comment

yuan+fx Yuan Exchagne Rate: Appreciation or Depreciation?

(click to enlarge, author’s own calculation)

Europe is China’s No. 1 trading partner. It seems that they did not get the deal the US is getting. Are we going to see more appreciation pressure of CNY/Euro in the future? Or Europe, a union of rough a dozen countries, is fundamentally weaker than the U.S. when it comes to negotiation power?

China’s stock market is cliff-diving

Posted in Uncategorized on March 29th, 2008 by Paul Deng – Be the first to comment
20080328 Chinas stock market is cliff diving
courtesy of Chartoftheday.com

Blackjack and investing

Posted in Uncategorized on March 22nd, 2008 by Paul Deng – 2 Comments

Edward Thorp and Bill Gross talk about their investing philosophy, and its relationship to blackjack.  Mr. Thorp ran two hedge funds, Princeton-Newport Partners and Ridgeline Partners, which went nearly 30 years without a down year, and averaged 19%-20% annual returns.
OB BE500 it tho 20080321135439 Blackjack and investing
(source: wsj)
 
 
"….(the) basic thrust concerns the idea of gambler's ruin, where you lose everything by over-betting. In the context of blackjack, you can never bet more than 2% of your stake without the possibility of eventually losing your entire pot".
 
Bill Gross, "Here at Pimco, it doesn't matter how much you have, whether it's $200 or $1 trillion. You'll see it throughout our portfolio. We don't have more than 2% in any one credit. Professional blackjack is being played in this trading room from the standpoint of risk management, and that's a big part of our success."

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